Why I'm Keeping Faith in PMLN

This is in response to the article Why I'm losing trust in the PML-N by Adnan Rasool.
Mr. Rasool starts off with the following line.
"It is very traumatic to lose trust in something you have believed in for a long time"
Let me set the record straight, right away. Contrary to the impression he tries to create, the author is not a 'long-time' believer in PMLN. He joined the PMLN campaign shortly before 2013 elections. His twitter timeline (@AdnanRasool) will confirm this assertion.

The author opens by criticizing the way government prepared the federal budget. An absolutely nonsensical statement that the "finance ministry ran the show" does not do justice to the authors wisdom. Who else should lead the preparation of the budget? The interior minister, the planning minister or someone else? Every ministry sends its budgetary requirements and recommendations to the finance ministry well before the budget. This is part and parcel of every ministers job and no invitation to participate is required to be sent out. Budget preparation, by definition, means allocating limited resources to a broader set of needs. Once all ministries have made their expectations known, a final decision on allocation rests with the finance ministry which seeks guidance from the Prime Minister on the priorities of the government. It is an exercise that inevitably leaves some with less than what they had hoped for and they must modify their plans accordingly.

The author also wonders "why do the most powerful people in the Federal Cabinet do not happen to be elected members" perhaps taking a shot at the finance minister. I will not delve into the merits of calling a senator 'non-elected', but can the writer please enlighten us as to which elected PMLN member is more qualified for the finance minister's job than Ishaq Dar?

The author goes on to criticize the 'Punjab Governance model." If we subtract the malice from the authors words, the model can be reworded as

Political appointments of elected members to technical positions are to be done away with. Cabinet positions shall not be used as political reward as this leads to inefficiency and corruption. A small cabinet with efficient ministers whose qualifications match the job will work closely with the chief minister. Officers of good repute, having necessary technical skills, shall report directly to the CM to minimize bureaucratic delays.

It is this 'Punjab Model' that gave us the Lahore Metro in 11 months! Perhaps the writer prefers the Sindh Model where the 16Km Lyari express-way is still incomplete after 7 years? Or maybe he has faith in the KP model where talk is cheap but nothing really gets done?  The writer forgets that it is this 'Punjab Model' that helped PMLN sweep the elections in Punjab with 3/4th majority! Pursuing any other model after elections would amount to political dishonesty. The writer might also recall that it was the governance in Punjab that won him over to PMLN!

In his famous election day victory speech of May 12, 2013 Nawaz Sharif requested the people to pray for an absolute majority. This prayer was motivated by his previous experience of how a weak government is forced to bow to internal and external pressures and compromises on its election promises. Now that the prayer has been answered, the PM is refusing to relent to internal & external forces which is causing the current tensions.

Losing or keeping faith in a political party should naturally depend upon the party's performance and not on internal party politics. The writer however omits the subject entirely. Any article that analyses the one year performance of PMLN but fails to highlight any of the numerous achievements should put a question mark on the authors motive. Securing $32bn investment from China for the Pak-China economic corridor, unprecedented investment in the power sector including mega projects such as Gadani Power Park & Dasu Dam, an exponential rise in forex reserves, stabilization of currency, GSP+ status, transparent 3G/4G auction, a promising start to the privatization program with the sale of UBL/PPL shares, no corruption scandals, securing financing from World bank, the list is long and impressive. Here is a Google map showing the government initiatives in just the power sector. If this fails to impress, I cannot imagine what will? So despite inner wrangling for power, real or imaginary, between ministers / bureaucrats I am keeping Faith in PMLN.

In conclusion, the author condones 'the mischief of external forces' by making the utterly shocking statement "I do not blame them for what they are doing given the way this government acts"! Nothing, absolutely nothing justifies interference of non-democratic forces. I am sorry Sir, but you are no democrat and someone PMLN can well do without. The author is disappointed, this much I will accept. I would advise him to collect his thoughts and rethink the reasons for his disappointment. Does it really stem from the governance of PMLN or is it more of a personal nature?

ہم تمہارے ساتھ نہیں

عمران خان کو عرصے سے یہ خوش فہمی ہے کہ سارا پاکستان کسی سونامی کا منتظر ہے اور اس انقلاب کے لئے کسی غیبی طاقت نے انہیں چن لیا ہے.٢٠١٣ کے الیکشن سے پہلے اور الیکشن کے بعد، عوام نے انھیں کئی بار واظع اشارے دیے ہیں کہ وہ ان کا انتخاب نہیں پر خان صاحب میں نہ مانوں کی رٹ لگائے ہوئے ہیں

عوام نے الیکشن سے پہلے ہونے والے جائزوں میں اپنے خیالات سے انھیں آگاہ کیا پر انہوں نے یہ جائزے کنڈکٹ کرنے والی تنظیموں (آئ آر آئ اور گیلپ) پر جانبداری کا الزام لگا دیا. عوام نے گیارہ مئی کو مسلم لیگ ن کے حق میں  واظع فیصلہ دیا تو خان صاحب نے دھاندلی کا شور مچایا. متعدد ضمنی انتخابات میں بھی عوام نے مسلم لیگ ن کو کامیاب کرا کر خان صاحب کو پیغام دینے کی کوشش کی پر وہ حکومتی مشینری پر الزامات لگاتے رہے. الیکشن ٹریبونلز میں بھی وہ دھاندلی کے ثبوت پیش کرنے میں ناکام رہے اور کئی نشستوں میں خود ان کی جماعت  کی بے ضابطگیاں ثابت ہوئیں. نومبر ٢٠١٣ میں ہونے والے سروے کے مطابق بھی مسلم لیگ ن کی مقبولیت میں مزید اضافہ اور تحریک انصاف کی مقبولیت میں کمی ہوئی. عمران خان کے جلسوں میں بھی پہلے جیسا دم خم نہیں رہا. ایسا محسوس ہوتا ہے کہ وہی پچیس پچاس ہزار لوگ ہیں جو ان کے پیچھے شہر شہر گھوم رہے ہیں. راولپنڈی اسلام آباد کے لگ بھگ چھ لاکھ دس ہزار ووٹرجنہوں نے خان صاحب کو ووٹ دیا اپنے شہر میں جلسے پر اکتاہٹ کا شکار رہے اور حاضرین کی تعداد کسی بھی اندازے کے مطابق اس کا دسواں حصّہ بھی نہیں تھی. عوام کی تمام تر کوشش کے باوجود عمران خان یہ ماننے پر راضی نہیں کہ وہ اکثریت کی نمائندگی نہیں کرتے. میری خان صاحب سے صرف اتنی گزارش ہے کہ وہ عوام کو کوئی ایسا طریقہ بتا دیں جس سے وہ  ثابت کر سکیں کہ وہ ان کے ساتھ نہیں!!!
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 ٢٣ اگست ٢٠١٤
مندرجہ بالا تحریر ١٤ اگست ٢٠١٤ کو شروع ہونے والے، تحریک انصاف کے آزادی مارچ سے پہلے کی ہے. عمران خان نے دعویٰ کیا تھا کہ دس لاکھ افراد ان کے ساتھ اسلام آباد کی طرف حکومت گرانے کے لئے مارچ کریں گے لیکن قوم نے ایک بار پھر ان کی سیاست کو مسترد کیا اور مختلف اندازوں کے مطابق صرف دس سے بیس ہزار لوگوں نے ان کا ساتھ دیا. عمران خان آج بھی پانچ ہزار کے مجمے کو لاکھوں کا بتا کر یہی راگ الاپ رہے ہیں کہ قوم نے ان کے حق میں اپنا فیصلہ دے دیا ہے. میرا آج پھر عمران خان سے وہی سوال ہےعوام کو کوئی ایسا طریقہ بتا دیں جس سے وہ  ثابت کر سکیں کہ وہ آپ کے ساتھ نہیں!!

عمران خان 'لاکھوں' کے مجمعے سے خطاب کر رہے ہیں

PMLN Continues to Enjoy Popular Support. IRI Survey

International Republican Institute (IRI), has conducted a survey regarding popularity of Pakistans Federal and provincial government. The results show that PMLN has maintained or enhanced public support it received during the May 2013 general elections held in Pakistan. 58% of the respondents have rated the performance of the government as 'Good' or 'Very Good' while 33% rate it as 'Bad' or 'Very Bad'. Considering that PMLN secured slightly less than 33% of the popular vote in the May 2013 general elections, the support of 58% population for the government can be considered a significant achievement. 

In response to a question regarding current voting intentions, 33% responded that they would vote for PMLN, 11% for Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI), 9% for Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). The results show that PMLN is holding on to its vote bank from May 2013 elections. PTI and PPP have lost a major chunk of support they mustered during the elections.

Party	Current Support	Elections May 2013	Change
PMLN	33%	32.8%	+0.2%
PTI	11%	16.9%	-5.9%
PPP	9%	15.3%	-6.3%

The verdict regarding the provincial governments also indicates continued popularity of PMLN in Punjab. Punjab government is the most popular provincial government in Pakistan with an approval rating of 73%. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government is a distant second with 49%, Sindh government enjoys only 34% support and Balochistan only 30%.

Province
Punjab	73%	21%
KP	49%	28%
Sindh	34%	48%
Balochistan	30%	36%

PMLN has already taken some tough but necessary decisions to fix the economy such as increase in the power tarriff, CNG, petroleum prices etc. It is encouraging to see that these decisions are being perceived in the right context. The coming months may put pressure on PMLN's popular support due to more tough decisions but in the medium terms these steps will bear fruit and the popularity of the party is expected to soar.

References:
http://dawn.com/news/1054736
http://tribune.com.pk/story/628369/iri-survey-for-most-pakistanis-power-crisis-is-the-real-problem/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistani_general_election,_2013

Geo Kahani, Bauhat Purani

جیو کہانی، بہت پرانی 

آج کل جیو اور آے آر وائی گروپس میں لڑائی عروج پر ہے- اسی سلسلے میں جیو نے ایک وضاحت جاری کی ہے جس میں اپنے اوپر لگاۓ گئے الزامات کا جواب دیا ہے اور اپنی ازلی معصومیت ثابت کرنے کے لئے یہ دعویٰ  کیا ہے کہ ماضی میں بھی جنگ گروپ پر ٹیکس چوری اور ڈیوٹی چوری کے کیسز غلط ثابت ہو چکے ہیں. یہ  ٹیکس چوری اور ڈیوٹی چوری کا معامله کیا تھا اس کی تفصیل شاید ہی آپ کو انٹرنیٹ پر کہیں ملے- تاریخ میں یہ کہانی درج کرانے کے لئے میں نے یہ کاوش کی ہے 

 یہ ١٩٩٩ کی بات ہے مسلم لیگ ن کی حکومت تھی، پرائیویٹ ٹی وی چینلز ابھی شروع نہیں ہوے تھے لیکن حکومت نے اس بارے میں اپنی پالیسی کا اعلان کر دیا تھا. حکومتی پالیسی کے مطابق پرائیویٹ چینلز کے لائسنس اخباری گروپس کو نہیں دیے جائیں گے تا کہ معلومات پر ایک ہی طبقے کی اجاراداری قائم نہ ہو. جنگ گروپ اس پالیسی پر بہت ناراض ہوا اور اس نے حکومت کو سبق سکھانے کے لئے حکومت پر سخت تنقید کا آغاز کر دیا. جنگ اخبار نے حکومت مخالف خبروں کو نمایاں جگہ دینا شروع کر دی. مسلم لیگ ن نے بھی جوابی وار کرنے کے لئے جنگ گروپ کے انکم ٹیکس اور امپورٹ کے   کھاتے کھول ڈالے. ریکارڈ کی چھان بین سےحکومت کے ہاتھ ایک انتہائی مظبوط کیس آ گیا جو جنگ گروپ کی جمع کرانے ہوۓ اپنے ہی کاغذات سے ثابت ہوتا تھا

:کیس کچھ یوں تھا

اس زمانے میں نیوز پرنٹ کاغذ کی درآمد پر کافی کسٹم ڈیوٹی عائد تھی اور اخبارات کو ان کی سرکولیشن کے حساب سے ڈیوٹی  فری درآمد کا کوٹہ الاٹ کیا جاتا تھا.  سرکاری اشتہارات بھی اخبارات کی سرکولیشن کے حساب سےبانٹے جاتے تھے. ان مراعات سے فائدہ اٹھانے کے لئے جنگ نے اپنی سرکولیشن کئی گنا زیادہ ظاہر کی. دوسری طرف انکم ٹیکس ریٹرن میں آمدنی کم دکھانے کے لئے جنگ گروپ نے سرکولیشن حقیقت سے کہیں کم ظاہر کی. غرض یہ کے جنگ گروپ کے اپنے ہی اعداد وشمار ایک دوسرے سے متصادم تھے اوراس کا جھوٹ اور ٹیکس چوری ثابت کر رہے تھے. ایف بی آر نے جنگ گروپ پر دو کیسز بنا ڈالے ایک کسٹم ڈیوٹی کی چوری کا اور دوسرا انکم ٹیکس چوری کا. جنگ پر انکم ٹیکس اور کسٹم ڈیوٹی کی مد میں کروڑں روپے واجب الادا تھے. جنگ  گروپ حکومت کی اس جسارت پر مزید چراغ پا ہو گیا. اس زمانے کے جنگ اخبار آپ کو اگر کہیں مل جائیں تو ضرور پڑھیں. یہ اخبارات انتقامی صحافت کی بدترین مثال ہیں

جنگ گروپ بری طرح پھنس چکا تھا لیکن پھر بارہ اکتوبر، ١٩٩٩ آ گیا اور پرویز مشرّف نے اقتدار پر قبضہ کر لیا. بارہ اکتوبر جنگ گروپ کے لئے عید کا دن ثابت ہوا. پرویز مشرف کی بغاوت کے حق میں راۓ عامہ ہموار کرنے کے صلے میں نہ صرف جنگ گروپ پر قائم کردہ کسٹم ڈیوٹی اور انکم ٹیکس کے کیسز ختم کر دیے گئے بلکہ پرویز مشرف نے قوم سے اپنے پہلے ہی خطاب میں جنگ گروپ کو پرائیویٹ نیوز چینلز کی خوشخبری بھی سنا دی 

 میڈیا کی موجودہ لڑائی میں جنگ حق پر ہے یا نہیں، یہ تو میں نہیں جانتا لیکن جنگ گروپ اپنے بدصورت ماضی کا حوالہ دے کر یقینآ مجھے قائل نہیں کر سکتا 

Answering Objections to Privatization

PMLN government has finalized a list of state owned enterprises (SOEs) to be privatized in the coming months. Various quarters have voiced criticism of the plan. Most of this criticism is motivated by groups having vested interests. Political opponents also see this as an opportunity to score points and are trying to confuse the public regarding the need and the effects of the proposed privatization process. In this article, we will discuss the various objections raised.

The first objection or rather allegation is that the privatization program is being carried out on the dictates of the IMF. Anybody who has followed PML-N's history will know that privatization has been the cornerstone of PMLN's economic policies since the 1990's. It was PMLN that initiated the process of privatization in Pakistan. Privatization has been an important part of the PMLN manifesto for more than 20 years. In its Jan, 2013 manifesto PMLN clearly states

Identify enterprises which need to be privatized and assign targets to the privatization commission to ensure completion of the privatization process within the assigned time frame.

PMLN therefore has a public mandate for its privatization program. Anybody calling it a policy formulated under the dictates of the IMF is clearly unaware of history and core party policies.

The second objection relates to questioning the need for privatization. There are two groups of people that raise this argument. One questions the need for privatization in totum, irrespective of the status of the SOE. This group does not even support the privatization of loss-making entities that are sucking up hundreds of billions of government funds annually. The main group falling in this category is Pakistan People's Party. PPP's founder Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was responsible for the nationalization program of the 1970's and is therefore predisposed to opposing any privatization plan. Supporting privatization would amount to admitting the mistake of its founder, a move that PPP is not yet mature enough to consider. Secondly, PPP, in each of its tenures, has used SOEs to generate employment for its loyal party workers (jiyalas) and their families. Many SOEs including PIA and Pakistan Steel are heavily staffed with PPP loyalists. Privatization, with management control, will put the jobs of these loyalists at risk. Furthermore, after privatization, PPP will lose the ability to use employment in SOEs as a political reward / bribe in any future government. Many scandals relating to misuse of SOE funds and assets surfaced during PPP's last tenure. These include the NICL and OGRA scams currently being investigated by NAB on the direction of the supreme court. The bottom line is that PPP does not want to lose control of these SOEs. They may be generating losses for the government of Pakistan but they are certainly benefiting the party.

The second group only objects to the privatization of SOEs that are running in profit. They question why the government should off load these entities when they are generating a profit? There are several reasons for the privatization of such entities. Running businesses is not the job of the government. The job of the government is to provide an environment conducive to running of the businesses by regulating business practices and protecting consumer rights.  If an entity is generating profits under government control it will generate higher profits under private management with better quality of service. Secondly, after the privatization of large loss-making SOEs, the burden of political over-staffing and misuse of government resources will shift to the remaining SOEs turning them into loss making entities. It is therefore better to privatize them while they are still profitable.

The present government is investing heavily in power generation to end the menace of load-shedding once and for all. Several projects have been initiated that require funding. Divesting from current SOEs will release funds to the government that can be invested into these new projects. For instance, the government is in advanced stages of finalizing two coal-fired power plants each of 660MW from its own resources in the Pakistan Power Park, at Gadani. The government's own investment in the project will give confidence to foreign investors and it is planned that a further eight plants each of 660MW will be installed in the power park. This government investment in the power sector holds far more value for the people than its current investment in banking or insurance. In the medium term the new SOEs created in the form of these power plants will also be privatized and the funds will be utilized where needed the most.

Another objection is the national pride argument. It is claimed that privatizing Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) and the steel mills will somehow dent our national pride. How many other governments, in democratic and developed countries are running airlines and steel mills? Pan Am, the national flag carrier of the United States, went bankrupt in 1991. The U.S. government made no attempt to save the airline in the name of national pride. The U.S. government has even ended its space shuttle program realizing that the private sector has developed to a point where it can provide the same services at a fraction of the cost. Seeing Pakistan Steel run on life support at less than 10% of its capacity should hurt our national pride more than seeing it prosper in private hands.

Finally there is the argument of why can't the government restructure these SOEs by bringing in qualified management. Billions have been flushed in the name of restructuring and bail-out packages on SOEs in the past. Those asking for more seem to have learned nothing in the last 40 years. 

Yeh to Wohi Jaga Hai ...

  ...یہ تو وہی جگہ ہے 

تاریخ کے اوراق پلٹیں اور بیس سال پہلے لکھے گئے ایک باب پر جا رکیں- ایک عرصہ گزر جانے کے باعث یہ باب نظروں  سے اوجھل ہو چکا ہے. ہماری نوجوان نسل بھی اپنی کم عمری کے باعث، اس حقیقت سےناآشنا ہے. اس باب کو پڑھنا اس لئے ضروری ہے کیونکہ اسے چند کرداروں کی تبدیلی کے ساتھ دہرانے کی کوشش کی جا رہی ہے 

 یہ دور ہے 1993 کا.  وزیراعظم نواز شریف ہیں اور صدر ہیں جناب غلام اسحاق خان. دونوں میں اختیارات کی جنگ عروج پر ہے. صدر اپنی  بالادستی قائم کرنے پر مصر اور نواز شریف کا اعلان کہ ڈکٹیشن نہیں لوں گا. بلآخر صدر نے اپنا آینی اختیار استعمال کرتے ہوئے اسمبلی تحلیل کردی اور وزیراعظم کو گھر بھیج دیا. نوازشریف سپریم کورٹ جا پہنچے اور وہاں سے فیصلہ یہ آیا کے اسسمبلی توڑنے کا قدم غیر آینی تھا. نواز شریف کی حکومت بحال تو ہو گئی لیکن صدر اور وزیراعظم میں ٹھن گئی اورمملکت کا نظام مفلوج ہو گیا. یہ بات واضح تھی کہ دونوں میں سے کم ازکم ایک کو جانا ہو گا. افواج پاکستان کو "مجبوراً"  مداخلت کرنا پڑی اور فیصلہ یہ ہوا کہ دونوں گھر جائیں اور ملک میں عام انتخابات کرا دئے  جائیں. نواز شریف کو اپنی کارکردگی پر اعتماد تھا. انہیں یقین تھا کہ عوام انہیں   دوبارہ منتخب کر لے گی اور وہ ایک واضح اکثریت کے ساتھ ایک مضبوط حکومت تشکیل دینے میں کامیاب ہو جائیں گے. یہاں پر نواز شریف سے چوک ہو گئی وہ اس بات کا اندازہ نہ لگا سکے کہ جس اسٹیبلشمنٹ نے غلام اسحاق خان کو کٹھپتلی کے طور پر استعمال کیا وہ انہیں کسی طور دوبارہ حکومت بنانے نہیں دے گی 

اسٹیبلشمنٹ کے لئے مسئلہ یہ تھا کہ نواز  شریف واقعی ایک مقبول وزیر اعظم تھے اور شفاف انتخابات میں ان کی جیت لازم تھی. عوام ابھی پیپلز پارٹی کی نا اہل حکومت کا کرپٹ دور نہیں بھولے تھے. ایسے میں انھیں ایک نئے مہرے کی ضرورت تھی.  نظر جا ٹھہری جماعت اسلامی پر. پرانے "شربت" کو ایک نئی بوتل میں ڈالا گیا اور لیبل لگایا گیا 'پاکستان اسلامک فرنٹ' کا. نعرہ تھا تبدیلی کا اور قوم کو سمجھایا جانے لگا کہ ہمارے مسائل کی ذمّہ دار دونوں بڑی جماعتیں ہیں اور یہ آپس میں ملی ہوئی ہیں. پیسا پانی کی طرح بہایا گیا اور بڑے بڑے جلسوں میں ہدف تنقید خصوصی طور پرنواز شریف کو بنایا گیا. انقلاب کی نوید سنائی گئی اور الیکشن سویپ کر کے حکومت بنانے کے دعوے کۓ گئے. سرکاری میڈیا نے بھی ان کو خوب کوریج دی. دوسری سیاسی  جماعتوں کے قائدین اور دانشوروں نے جماعت اسلامی کی  قیادت کو سمجھانے کی بہت کوشش کی لیکن انہوں نے کسی کی ایک نہ سنی اور 100 سے زائد نشستوں پر تنہا الیکشن لڑنے کا اعلان کر دیا  

الیکشن کے نتائج جب سامنے آتے تو پاکستان اسلامک فرنٹ قومی اسمبلی کی 207 نشستوں میں سے صرف 3 پرکامیابی حاصل کر سکی.  مسلم لیگ ن نے سب سے زیادہ ووٹ حاصل کئے لیکن سب سے زیادہ نشستیں پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی کے حصّے میں آئیں گو کہ ان کے ووٹوں کی تعداد مسلم لیگ کے مقابلے میں پانچ فیصد کم تھی. نتائج کا خلاصہ مندرجہ ذیل  ہے

نشستیں	ووٹون  کی تعداد	پارٹی
89	7,578,635	پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی
73	7,980,229	مسلم لیگ ن
3	645,278	پاکستان اسلامک فرنٹ

یہاں پر یہ کہنا کہ پاکستان اسلامک فرنٹ  ناکام ہو گئی، نادانی ہو گی. اسلامک فرنٹ حکومت بنانے میں تو ضرور ناکام  ہوئی  لیکن اپنے اصل ہدف کے حصول میں کامیاب رہی. یہ ہدف تھا مسلم لیگ ن کو حکومت بنانے سے روکنا. اسلامک فرنٹ کی کامیابی کا اندازہ اس بات سے لگایئے کہ کم وبیش انیس نشستوں پر مسلم لیگ ن کی ناکامی کی وجہ اسلامک فرنٹ اور مسلم لیگ کے درمیان ووٹوں کی تقسیم تھی

تاریخ کی کتاب بند کر کے، اب ذرا آج کے حالات پر نظر ڈالیں- وہی مسلم لیگ ن اور وہی اسٹیبلشمنٹ کی خواہش. فرق ہے تو صرف اتنا کہ پاکستان اسلامک فرنٹ  کی جگہ پاکستان تحریک انصاف انتخابات کلین سویپ کرنے کی دعویدار ہے.  وہی تبدیلی کا نعرہ، وہی 'دونوں بڑی جماعتیں ملی ہوئی ہیں' کی رٹ، وہی  جلسوں میں پیسے کا بےدریغ استعمال، وہی میڈیا کے ذرئیے غبارے میں ہوا بھرنے کی کوشش اور وہی ہدف تنقید یعنی نواز شریف. تحریک انصاف کے لئے الیکشن کے نتائج بھی اسلامک فرنٹ کے نتائج سے زیادہ مختلف نہیں ہوں گے. لیکن کیا تحریک انصاف مسلم لیگ ن کو اتنا بڑا نقصان پہنچا سکے گی جتنا اسلامک فرنٹ نے پہنچایا تھا؟ عوامی آرا کے جائزے یہ بتاتے ہیں کہ پی ٹی آئ نے مسلم لیگ کو اتنا نقصان نہیں پہنچایا جتنا پیپلز پارٹی کو پہنچایا ہے. پنجاب کے عوام، بالعموم، مسلم لیگ کی پنجاب میں کارکردگی سے مطمئن ہیں اور محض تبدیلی کے نام پر اپنا مستقبل داؤ پر لگانے میں دلچسپی نہیں رکھتے.

 ہماری نئی نسل کا ایک حصّہ اس تاریخی حقیقت سے نا آشنا ہے. تبدیلی کا سہانا خواب ان جوشیلے نوجوانوں کو اپنی طرف کھینچ رہا ہے. اگر یہ نوجوان تاریخ کا مطالعہ کریں تو انھیں معلوم ہو جائے گا کہ یہ خواب ہم کو پہلے بھی دکھائے جا چکے ہیں اور ہم ان کی تعبیر پیپلز پارٹی کی ایک اور کرپٹ اور نا اہل حکومت کی صورت میں بھگت چکے ہیں. الله تعالیٰ پاکستان کو پیپلز پارٹی کے کرپشن اور ناہلی سے بھرپور مزید پانچ سالہ دور حکومت سے محفوظ رکھے. آمین 

The Family Politics Debate

Much is made of family politics or مؤروسی سیاست  by the media and a political party claiming to be agents of change. The term is used indiscriminately to refer to families that have been in politics for several generations and to those who are introducing a second generation to politics. Is this phenomenon unique to Pakistan? Is it unique to politics? Is it always bad? We will explore these issues here.

Family politics is prevalent in most democracies. In the United States, the Kennedy family, the Bush Family, the Romney family and the Clintons are all examples from recent history. A long and exhaustive list of US political families and a list of political families around the world is available on Wikipedia. Having established that families with multiple politicians is a common global occurrence we proceed to investigate the underlying reasons.

Parents want their children to follow in their footsteps and children imitate their parents to seek their approval. This is a natural instinct that all of us posses. Children inherit skills from their parents be it mathematical, analytical, physical, social or political. They are raised in an environment where the parents reinforce these skills and act as coaches. Furthermore, these children are exposed regularly to the work environments of their parents which helps them develop early insights into the profession. They are therefore much more likely to succeed in the field chosen by their parents than another child. Famous footballer Lionel Messi posing with a number 10 infant sized Barcelona shirt imprinted with the name of his newborn son Thiago, illustrates this point comprehensively.

The most vocal opponent of family politics in Pakistan, Imran Khan comes from a family of cricketers. His cousins Javed Burki and Majid Khan have played for Pakistan, Majid's son Bazid Khan has also played for Pakistan. Imran's own UK based sons are aspiring cricketers. Does that mean none of them are talented or is mere statement of these facts conclusive proof of nepotism?  For the reasons mentioned earlier, it is natural for there to be more successful cricketers in the family of a cricketer. Similarly there is greater likelihood of more politicians in the family of a successful politician.

Shifting focus to Imran's political career, we see him welcoming the Leghari family which has been the largest single political family of Pakistan over several generations. We also see him appointing family members to the board of directors of the Shaukat Khanum Hospital. If this is not about principals what's this rhetoric really about? All this talk is primarily directed towards the Sharifs and is nothing but a poorly formed argument to malign his perceived political rivals. Let us spend a little time on the political history of the Sharifs.

Sharif's are not a political dynasty by any stretch of imagination. Nawaz Sharif is a first generation politician who entered politics in 1976. His father was an industrialist. His brother, Shahbaz Sharif, entered politics much later and was elected thrice to the Punjab assembly before he first became chief minister of the province. Nawaz Sharif's choice of Shahbaz as the chief minister of Punjab raised several eyebrows in 1997. He has however proved himself to be a worthy choice for the post and even his opponents acknowledge him as an outstanding administrator.

A second generation of Sharifs is now looking to establish itself in politics. We have argued that there is an inherent advantage enjoyed by the children of political families that increases their chances of success. On the flip side people also stand to benefit from these new political entrants. They are immediately able to trust the new candidate as standing for the same values as their parents. They are perceived as the most loyal party proponents that will stand by the party in the most adverse of circumstances. If there is nothing wrong with a cricketer's son being a cricketer or a dentist's son being a dentist, there need not be any stigma attached to a politician belonging to a political family. Media and politicians need to be objective. Criticism of a politician on the basis of his views or his own actions can be justified but mere labeling as a family politician is unimaginative and shallow.

References
http://www.intropsych.com/ch10_development/entering_the_parents_profession.html
http://www.helloonline.com/celebrities/2007/07/16/jemima-imran-khan/

Understanding the PEW Survey Ratings

A survey was recently conducted by the Pew Research Center which conducts public opinion polls around the world on a broad array of subjects. A range of issues was covered in the survey including approval ratings for key politicians and institutional heads in Pakistan. The approval ratings of these personalities are reproduced below:

The survey has sparked a debate on what these results mean for the upcoming elections in Pakistan. Politicians with improved numbers are quoting the results as conclusive proof that 'change' is here and that they are set to "sweep" the elections by polling 70% of the popular vote.  To understand what, if anything, can be concluded from these results we must first understand what the numbers really mean.
First and foremost we must reject the myth that the survey results show the percentage of votes that each personality will poll in an election. To confirm this, simply note that the numbers in each column add up to much more than 100% So what are these numbers then? To understand this, it is important to reconstruct the question that was asked of the survey respondents

Q) Which of the following personalities do you "view favorably" or have a positive image of? You may choose as many as you like.

__ Ashfaq Pervez Kiani

__ Asif Zardari

__ Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry

__ Imran Khan

__ Nawaz Sharif

__ Pervez Musharraf

__ Yousuf Raza Gillani

The people who participated in the survey were allowed to choose more than one person in the answer to the above question. So if 100 people were surveyed, the numbers in the table above show how many positive ratings each of the personalities received from those 100 respondents. Now that we understand the meaning of these numbers we can proceed to analyse their significance. 

70% of the respondents view Mr. Imran Khan, leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), favorably where as 62% hold a favorable view of Mr. Nawaz Sharif, leader of Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN). Does this suggest that PTI will surely poll more votes than PMLN? To anwer this, we need to review the politics of the two parties during the last twelve months. PTI has built its campaign on the notion that all politician's in Pakistan are corrupt and incompetent (except those who chose to join it) and that PMLN and the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are "equally" responsible for the current state of the country. PTI leaders make anti-PMLN comments in evey public rally and in every TV appearance . It can safely be said that PTI has directed more criticism at PMLN than it has done towards the ruling PPP. PTI has also ruled out any alliance with PMLN before or after the elections. As a result of its fierce assault on PMLN, the people who may vote for PTI in the upcoming elections most likely selected only Imran Khan and not Nawaz Sharif in the answer to the question presented above. Looking at the PMLN campaign, we see that their leaders have mostly ignored PTI attacks and restricted themselves to answering allegations only when it became necessary. The center of PMLN's campaign is the corruption of the ruling PPP and not PTI. They have not explicitly ruled out a pre or post election alliance with PTI. As a result, the PMLN voter still carries a favorable image of Imran Khan originating from the 1992 cricket world cup win and the establishment of a cancer hospital in Lahore. It is therefore logical to assume that a number of respondents who are prospective PMLN voters, may have selected both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif in the answer to the survey question presented above. 

Simple mathematics* with the numbers in the table tells us that the number of people who selected both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif on this survey ranges between 32% and  62%. For the reasons presented above, it is much more likely that people who selected both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif on the survey are prospective PMLN voters. It can also be safely concluded that at least half of those who see Imran Khan favorably do not believe his claims about Nawaz Sharif. 

To summarize, this survey was not designed to be a predictor of election results. It was meant to gauge the approval rating of individuals. Other non-political personalities such as social worker Abdus Sattar Edhi could have been listed under the same question and plausibly secured ratings exceeding 70% 

* 62 (NS rating) + 72 (IK rating) - 100 = 32

ImmiPossible

Imran Khan promises to end corruption in 90 days. Is it possible? There are some who believe he can deliver on his promise, others are skeptical of both his ability and sincerity. When questioned about how he would go about doing it, Imran, eager to be seen as confident, reduced this period to nine days. Nine days to end corruption in a country of 170 million is a goal only the super smart or the utterly daft would be willing to set.

Imran uses his political failures to his advantage. Having no history of holding a public office is translated into having no history of corruption or broken promises. However, if you examine Imran's promises only since the rebirth of Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI) in Lahore, many have already been broken. One such promise is discussed here.

Remember the time, not so long ago, when PTI was obsessed with declaration of assets? Non-declaration was termed the root of all evil and declaration of assets the panacea for rampant corruption. PTI adopted the strategy of targeting all politicians but reserved the most scathing attacks for the leaders of PML(N). Press conferences were held daily to urge the Sharifs to declare their assets. It was soon brought to the attention of Imran that the Sharifs had already declared their assets as part of their election nomination papers and continue to do so every year in the form of Wealth Statements, a mandatory part of Income Tax returns. Embarrassed with this oversight, Imran tagged the word "real" to the word "assets" and repeated his previous demands. It was declared that if you are rich you must be corrupt. Imran still failed to elicit a response from PML(N).  PTI then resorted to presenting self-compiled lists of the Sharif's assets printed on A4 sized sheets of paper, neatly stapled into a bunch. The thicker the bunch, more authentic the document was deemed to be. Waving these before the talk show cameras was considered to be irrefutable documentary proof of the oral accusation. Promises to investigate and unearth these assets were made. PTI also announced its intentions to take the case to the supreme court. This clip from Geo News program Lekin aired on Nov 5, 2011 shows PTI leader Mr. Mahmud-ur-Rasheed making these accusations and promising the above.

On Nov 13, 2011, the CEC of PTI issued a press release at the conclusion of its meeting in Islamabad. Some of the key points in this press release are as follows

• Scrutiny Committee/s will be nominated by the Chairman to address complaints of substantial corruption against any member of PTI.
• A committee will be formed to examine issues of assets obtained through corruption of all politicians including those of PTI.

On the same day, it was further announced that

PTI has established the Assets Scrutiny Committee that will be headed by Hamid Khan. It will first start by checking assets of PTI leadership. Chairman Imran Khan

On Dec 19 2011, another 10 member scrutiny  committee headed by Shah Mahmood Qureshi was announced. This time the purpose was to evaluate the new entrants into the party.

It has been 163 days since the announcement of the first scrutiny committee probing into the assets of politicians and we have not heard anything from it. Ironically, the only related news item that has adorned the newspaper columns since then has been about a senior member of the scrutiny committee in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Malik Naveed Khan coming under investigation of National Accountability Bureau for accumulation of assets beyond known sources of income.

So can Imran end corruption in 9 (or even 90) days? We don't have to elect him to find out. We already have our answer. It is ImmiPossible!

Dengue Brothers or Dengue Khan?

Imran Khan, propelled by a friendly media and unburdened by the weight of a political history, is flying high in public opinion. An important element in Imran's popularity is the absence of any previous record in a government position. While he and his party have no problems blowing up real and imagined weaknesses of their opponents to their political advantage, his critics find very little to target apart from a few indiscretions in his private and cricketing life. This lack of history is not necessarily a good thing. While it gives him a clean sheet and gives his followers a  lot of hope, it also casts a big question mark over his abilities to deliver on his promises. There are however many clues in his largely unfruitful political career spanning the last 15 years for those who are keeping their eyes and minds open.

Dengue fever effects up to 100 million worldwide each year. Half a million of these cases are life threatening. In 2010 dengue outbreaks were reported in Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Colombia, Singapore and several other countries. Punjab has been hit hard by dengue fever in 2011. The outbreak itself is not necessarily a reason to ridicule a government. It is how the outbreak is handled that determines the competence or lack thereof. Imran loves to use every mention of the outbreak as an opportunity to score some political points. His actions in alleviating the misery of the people are however non-existent. The primary responsibility of preventing and handling the outbreak lies with the Punjab government. However, Imran was ideally placed to lend a helping hand in this crises not to the government of Punjab but to the people of Punjab. The Shaukat Khanum Hospital is built on land donated by the Punjab government and runs on donations of Pakistanis. Instead of taunting the government from the sidelines Imran should have shown his leadership qualities and set up an intensive care unit at the hospital for patients in critical condition. The superior facilities and better doctors at this hospital may have been able to save a few lives. Sadly, Imran saw every dengue death as a +1 to his political score. He opted to show up on talk shows and have a chuckle about how the "Dengue Brothers" were being clean bowled by mosquitoes. Instead of taking the lead and offering free dengue tests to suspected patients Imran chose to defy the orders of the Punjab government and refused to carry out dengue tests for Rs.90.

In a recent survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan, 86% Pakistanis rated the performance of Punjab government as good or satisfactory in fighting dengue. Based on these numbers, the brothers can hold their heads up high while the Khan must hang his in shame.

Majority Favors Shahbaz Sharifs Performance in fighting Dengue virus The Ratings are Good 58% Satisfactory 28% and Bad 9%: GILANI POLL/GALLUP PAKISTAN