An open letter to DFID regarding political activities of Alif Ailaan

I would like to share my concerns with you regarding furthering of a political agenda by a DFID funded NGO, Alif Ailaan (AA) in Pakistan. For the last several weeks, a television / print campaign has been launched on Pakistani media that apparently aims to pressure the Federal Government into increasing budgetary allocation for education to 4% of GDP. I have no objection to the underlying goal but the campaign reeks of a political agenda to misguide the Pakistani public into believing that resource allocation for education is primarily the responsibility of the Federal Government.

I am sure AA is well aware that after the 18th constitutional amendment, education is a Provincial subject. Resource allocation for education is the decision made independently by each of the Provincial governments and has nothing to do with the centre. Yet AA repeatedly names the Federal Government and the Federal finance minister in its campaign with absolutely no mention of the Provincial Chief Ministers or the Provincial governments. The general Pakistani public is not aware of where the constitutional responsibility lies and is likely to be misled into blaming the Federal Government for the lack of fund allocation to education. The Federal Government already distributes 57.5% of the divisible pool among the provinces and it has no control over how each province decides to allocate these resources. Even if the Federal Government were to increase the divisible pool, it would have no constitutional authority to specify Provincial budgetary allocation for education.

AA, in its defense, might cite Article 25A of the constitution which reads:

The State shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of five to sixteen years in such manner as may be determined by law.

A cursory reading might lead one to believe that this puts the burden on the Federal Government but if we look up the definition of “the State” in Article 7 of the constitution, it reads

“the State" means the Federal Government, Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament), a Provincial Government, a Provincial Assembly, and such local or other authorities in Pakistan as are by law empowered to impose any tax or cess.

Other justifications that AA might put forward include promises made in the ruling party’s manifesto. All parties should be held accountable but only to the extent of the provinces where they hold sufficient majority to influence budgetary allocation.

I have expressed my concerns openly on twitter tagging AA’s twitter handle @alifailaan but no clarification or justification has been put forth in response. I request you to kindly look into the matter and advise AA to refrain from using DFID funds to further political agendas of its management. This money will produce better results if spent on ensuring judicious use of allocated funds in the provinces.

Sincerely

@SaudSami
A Concerned Pakistani Citizen

PMLN Continues to Enjoy Popular Support. IRI Survey

International Republican Institute (IRI), has conducted a survey regarding popularity of Pakistans Federal and provincial government. The results show that PMLN has maintained or enhanced public support it received during the May 2013 general elections held in Pakistan. 58% of the respondents have rated the performance of the government as 'Good' or 'Very Good' while 33% rate it as 'Bad' or 'Very Bad'. Considering that PMLN secured slightly less than 33% of the popular vote in the May 2013 general elections, the support of 58% population for the government can be considered a significant achievement. 

In response to a question regarding current voting intentions, 33% responded that they would vote for PMLN, 11% for Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI), 9% for Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). The results show that PMLN is holding on to its vote bank from May 2013 elections. PTI and PPP have lost a major chunk of support they mustered during the elections.

Party	Current Support	Elections May 2013	Change
PMLN	33%	32.8%	+0.2%
PTI	11%	16.9%	-5.9%
PPP	9%	15.3%	-6.3%

The verdict regarding the provincial governments also indicates continued popularity of PMLN in Punjab. Punjab government is the most popular provincial government in Pakistan with an approval rating of 73%. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government is a distant second with 49%, Sindh government enjoys only 34% support and Balochistan only 30%.

Province
Punjab	73%	21%
KP	49%	28%
Sindh	34%	48%
Balochistan	30%	36%

PMLN has already taken some tough but necessary decisions to fix the economy such as increase in the power tarriff, CNG, petroleum prices etc. It is encouraging to see that these decisions are being perceived in the right context. The coming months may put pressure on PMLN's popular support due to more tough decisions but in the medium terms these steps will bear fruit and the popularity of the party is expected to soar.

References:
http://dawn.com/news/1054736
http://tribune.com.pk/story/628369/iri-survey-for-most-pakistanis-power-crisis-is-the-real-problem/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistani_general_election,_2013

Answering Objections to Privatization

PMLN government has finalized a list of state owned enterprises (SOEs) to be privatized in the coming months. Various quarters have voiced criticism of the plan. Most of this criticism is motivated by groups having vested interests. Political opponents also see this as an opportunity to score points and are trying to confuse the public regarding the need and the effects of the proposed privatization process. In this article, we will discuss the various objections raised.

The first objection or rather allegation is that the privatization program is being carried out on the dictates of the IMF. Anybody who has followed PML-N's history will know that privatization has been the cornerstone of PMLN's economic policies since the 1990's. It was PMLN that initiated the process of privatization in Pakistan. Privatization has been an important part of the PMLN manifesto for more than 20 years. In its Jan, 2013 manifesto PMLN clearly states

Identify enterprises which need to be privatized and assign targets to the privatization commission to ensure completion of the privatization process within the assigned time frame.

PMLN therefore has a public mandate for its privatization program. Anybody calling it a policy formulated under the dictates of the IMF is clearly unaware of history and core party policies.

The second objection relates to questioning the need for privatization. There are two groups of people that raise this argument. One questions the need for privatization in totum, irrespective of the status of the SOE. This group does not even support the privatization of loss-making entities that are sucking up hundreds of billions of government funds annually. The main group falling in this category is Pakistan People's Party. PPP's founder Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was responsible for the nationalization program of the 1970's and is therefore predisposed to opposing any privatization plan. Supporting privatization would amount to admitting the mistake of its founder, a move that PPP is not yet mature enough to consider. Secondly, PPP, in each of its tenures, has used SOEs to generate employment for its loyal party workers (jiyalas) and their families. Many SOEs including PIA and Pakistan Steel are heavily staffed with PPP loyalists. Privatization, with management control, will put the jobs of these loyalists at risk. Furthermore, after privatization, PPP will lose the ability to use employment in SOEs as a political reward / bribe in any future government. Many scandals relating to misuse of SOE funds and assets surfaced during PPP's last tenure. These include the NICL and OGRA scams currently being investigated by NAB on the direction of the supreme court. The bottom line is that PPP does not want to lose control of these SOEs. They may be generating losses for the government of Pakistan but they are certainly benefiting the party.

The second group only objects to the privatization of SOEs that are running in profit. They question why the government should off load these entities when they are generating a profit? There are several reasons for the privatization of such entities. Running businesses is not the job of the government. The job of the government is to provide an environment conducive to running of the businesses by regulating business practices and protecting consumer rights.  If an entity is generating profits under government control it will generate higher profits under private management with better quality of service. Secondly, after the privatization of large loss-making SOEs, the burden of political over-staffing and misuse of government resources will shift to the remaining SOEs turning them into loss making entities. It is therefore better to privatize them while they are still profitable.

The present government is investing heavily in power generation to end the menace of load-shedding once and for all. Several projects have been initiated that require funding. Divesting from current SOEs will release funds to the government that can be invested into these new projects. For instance, the government is in advanced stages of finalizing two coal-fired power plants each of 660MW from its own resources in the Pakistan Power Park, at Gadani. The government's own investment in the project will give confidence to foreign investors and it is planned that a further eight plants each of 660MW will be installed in the power park. This government investment in the power sector holds far more value for the people than its current investment in banking or insurance. In the medium term the new SOEs created in the form of these power plants will also be privatized and the funds will be utilized where needed the most.

Another objection is the national pride argument. It is claimed that privatizing Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) and the steel mills will somehow dent our national pride. How many other governments, in democratic and developed countries are running airlines and steel mills? Pan Am, the national flag carrier of the United States, went bankrupt in 1991. The U.S. government made no attempt to save the airline in the name of national pride. The U.S. government has even ended its space shuttle program realizing that the private sector has developed to a point where it can provide the same services at a fraction of the cost. Seeing Pakistan Steel run on life support at less than 10% of its capacity should hurt our national pride more than seeing it prosper in private hands.

Finally there is the argument of why can't the government restructure these SOEs by bringing in qualified management. Billions have been flushed in the name of restructuring and bail-out packages on SOEs in the past. Those asking for more seem to have learned nothing in the last 40 years. 

Condemnation without Verification

A report titled Representation without Taxation has been released by investigative journalist Umar Cheema on Dec 12, 2012 alleging that two-thirds of the MNA's are not paying any taxes. Umar Cheema is a respected journalist but perhaps not well versed with the procedures and laws of taxation. While the data presented is not completely inaccurate, the conclusions drawn certainly are.

The report has been prepared by obtaining a list of national identity card (CNIC) numbers of elected parliamentarians, most likely from the assembly secretariat. This list has been cross referenced with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) database to see if the member is registered as a tax payer. If the member is registered, his National Tax Number (NTN) was obtained and used to obtain the amount of tax paid with his income tax return for the year ending June 2011. The information is tabulated as per the snapshot below.

Based on this table, an assertion has been made that elected members are not paying any taxes where ever the box under the 'Tax' column is empty. This assertion is simply not true. Parliamentarians receive salaries from the government and like all salaried individuals, income tax is deducted and deposited to FBR at the time of payment of these salaries. Even if the member is not registered as a tax payer, the tax is still deducted and deposited with reference to the CNIC number of the individual. Labeling these members as "tax dodgers" based on this information is irresponsible. Only members who have paid tax on income other than their parliamentary remuneration have been recognized as tax payers by Mr. Cheema.

As regards to declaration of other income, one must also recognize that a large number of these parliamentarians derive their incomes from the agricultural sector which is legally exempted from federal taxes. It is also probable that some of these members carry out their businesses in the name of corporate entities. These corporate entities are registered taxpayers themselves and file their own statements of income tax with the FBR. The income and the taxes paid by the corporation is not reflected on the income statements of its directors. It is also possible that the elected representative carries out his business in the name of his wife or children. In which case the income and taxes paid will be included in the income statement of the legal owner.

Members of the parliament who have not filed an income tax return are guilty but not of what they are being accused of. They are guilty of non-filing of income tax returns. However considering non-filing as conclusive proof of tax evasion is naive and irresponsible. As soon as the report was released, people started hurling abuse at the elected representatives based on the assertions in the report. Even a senior journalist like Dr. Shahid Masood was misled into making a sweeping condemnation of all "TAX CHORS" and calling for their arrest.

Another journalist tweeted "Mushahid Hussain paid only Rs82 as tax, even I pay more than that every month!" Had he known that Mushahid Hussain has income tax deducted at source, exactly like he does, he may not have made this remark.

Had this report been released by some other journalist, it would have been labelled as an attempt to discredit the politicians at the behest of "undemocratic forces". But given Mr. Cheema's history such an accusation does not carry weight. Personal income tax returns are not public documents. Anchors have waved personal income tax returns of parliamentarians in front of the cameras since the release of this report without any regard to the legality of such an act. Mr. Cheema has proudly tweeted

Perhaps Mr. Cheema is unaware that the reason for this it that it would be illegal to do so anywhere else in the world and would entail severe legal consequences.

The purpose of the above analysis is not to absolve the parliamentarians from suspicions of tax evasion. The culture of tax evasion is prevalent in Pakistan and no section of society is free from it. FBR has the means to correlate personal expenses of individuals such as credit card bills, electricity, gas, mobile phone use, club memberships, land ownership, vehicle ownership with the declared sources of income to identify suspected tax evasion. Such an analysis is required to identify tax evaders and cannot be replaced by the simplistic approach of Mr. Cheema.

The Family Politics Debate

Much is made of family politics or مؤروسی سیاست  by the media and a political party claiming to be agents of change. The term is used indiscriminately to refer to families that have been in politics for several generations and to those who are introducing a second generation to politics. Is this phenomenon unique to Pakistan? Is it unique to politics? Is it always bad? We will explore these issues here.

Family politics is prevalent in most democracies. In the United States, the Kennedy family, the Bush Family, the Romney family and the Clintons are all examples from recent history. A long and exhaustive list of US political families and a list of political families around the world is available on Wikipedia. Having established that families with multiple politicians is a common global occurrence we proceed to investigate the underlying reasons.

Parents want their children to follow in their footsteps and children imitate their parents to seek their approval. This is a natural instinct that all of us posses. Children inherit skills from their parents be it mathematical, analytical, physical, social or political. They are raised in an environment where the parents reinforce these skills and act as coaches. Furthermore, these children are exposed regularly to the work environments of their parents which helps them develop early insights into the profession. They are therefore much more likely to succeed in the field chosen by their parents than another child. Famous footballer Lionel Messi posing with a number 10 infant sized Barcelona shirt imprinted with the name of his newborn son Thiago, illustrates this point comprehensively.

The most vocal opponent of family politics in Pakistan, Imran Khan comes from a family of cricketers. His cousins Javed Burki and Majid Khan have played for Pakistan, Majid's son Bazid Khan has also played for Pakistan. Imran's own UK based sons are aspiring cricketers. Does that mean none of them are talented or is mere statement of these facts conclusive proof of nepotism?  For the reasons mentioned earlier, it is natural for there to be more successful cricketers in the family of a cricketer. Similarly there is greater likelihood of more politicians in the family of a successful politician.

Shifting focus to Imran's political career, we see him welcoming the Leghari family which has been the largest single political family of Pakistan over several generations. We also see him appointing family members to the board of directors of the Shaukat Khanum Hospital. If this is not about principals what's this rhetoric really about? All this talk is primarily directed towards the Sharifs and is nothing but a poorly formed argument to malign his perceived political rivals. Let us spend a little time on the political history of the Sharifs.

Sharif's are not a political dynasty by any stretch of imagination. Nawaz Sharif is a first generation politician who entered politics in 1976. His father was an industrialist. His brother, Shahbaz Sharif, entered politics much later and was elected thrice to the Punjab assembly before he first became chief minister of the province. Nawaz Sharif's choice of Shahbaz as the chief minister of Punjab raised several eyebrows in 1997. He has however proved himself to be a worthy choice for the post and even his opponents acknowledge him as an outstanding administrator.

A second generation of Sharifs is now looking to establish itself in politics. We have argued that there is an inherent advantage enjoyed by the children of political families that increases their chances of success. On the flip side people also stand to benefit from these new political entrants. They are immediately able to trust the new candidate as standing for the same values as their parents. They are perceived as the most loyal party proponents that will stand by the party in the most adverse of circumstances. If there is nothing wrong with a cricketer's son being a cricketer or a dentist's son being a dentist, there need not be any stigma attached to a politician belonging to a political family. Media and politicians need to be objective. Criticism of a politician on the basis of his views or his own actions can be justified but mere labeling as a family politician is unimaginative and shallow.

References
http://www.intropsych.com/ch10_development/entering_the_parents_profession.html
http://www.helloonline.com/celebrities/2007/07/16/jemima-imran-khan/

Understanding the PEW Survey Ratings

A survey was recently conducted by the Pew Research Center which conducts public opinion polls around the world on a broad array of subjects. A range of issues was covered in the survey including approval ratings for key politicians and institutional heads in Pakistan. The approval ratings of these personalities are reproduced below:

The survey has sparked a debate on what these results mean for the upcoming elections in Pakistan. Politicians with improved numbers are quoting the results as conclusive proof that 'change' is here and that they are set to "sweep" the elections by polling 70% of the popular vote.  To understand what, if anything, can be concluded from these results we must first understand what the numbers really mean.
First and foremost we must reject the myth that the survey results show the percentage of votes that each personality will poll in an election. To confirm this, simply note that the numbers in each column add up to much more than 100% So what are these numbers then? To understand this, it is important to reconstruct the question that was asked of the survey respondents

Q) Which of the following personalities do you "view favorably" or have a positive image of? You may choose as many as you like.

__ Ashfaq Pervez Kiani

__ Asif Zardari

__ Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry

__ Imran Khan

__ Nawaz Sharif

__ Pervez Musharraf

__ Yousuf Raza Gillani

The people who participated in the survey were allowed to choose more than one person in the answer to the above question. So if 100 people were surveyed, the numbers in the table above show how many positive ratings each of the personalities received from those 100 respondents. Now that we understand the meaning of these numbers we can proceed to analyse their significance. 

70% of the respondents view Mr. Imran Khan, leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), favorably where as 62% hold a favorable view of Mr. Nawaz Sharif, leader of Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN). Does this suggest that PTI will surely poll more votes than PMLN? To anwer this, we need to review the politics of the two parties during the last twelve months. PTI has built its campaign on the notion that all politician's in Pakistan are corrupt and incompetent (except those who chose to join it) and that PMLN and the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are "equally" responsible for the current state of the country. PTI leaders make anti-PMLN comments in evey public rally and in every TV appearance . It can safely be said that PTI has directed more criticism at PMLN than it has done towards the ruling PPP. PTI has also ruled out any alliance with PMLN before or after the elections. As a result of its fierce assault on PMLN, the people who may vote for PTI in the upcoming elections most likely selected only Imran Khan and not Nawaz Sharif in the answer to the question presented above. Looking at the PMLN campaign, we see that their leaders have mostly ignored PTI attacks and restricted themselves to answering allegations only when it became necessary. The center of PMLN's campaign is the corruption of the ruling PPP and not PTI. They have not explicitly ruled out a pre or post election alliance with PTI. As a result, the PMLN voter still carries a favorable image of Imran Khan originating from the 1992 cricket world cup win and the establishment of a cancer hospital in Lahore. It is therefore logical to assume that a number of respondents who are prospective PMLN voters, may have selected both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif in the answer to the survey question presented above. 

Simple mathematics* with the numbers in the table tells us that the number of people who selected both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif on this survey ranges between 32% and  62%. For the reasons presented above, it is much more likely that people who selected both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif on the survey are prospective PMLN voters. It can also be safely concluded that at least half of those who see Imran Khan favorably do not believe his claims about Nawaz Sharif. 

To summarize, this survey was not designed to be a predictor of election results. It was meant to gauge the approval rating of individuals. Other non-political personalities such as social worker Abdus Sattar Edhi could have been listed under the same question and plausibly secured ratings exceeding 70% 

* 62 (NS rating) + 72 (IK rating) - 100 = 32

Why Benami?

A document has recently surfaced in which Jemima Khan, former wife of cricketer turned politician Imran Khan, appoints Mr. Saifullah Khan Niazi as her attorney to complete the transfer of 300 Kanals land in Islamabad on her behalf. The following paragraphs in this document demand special attention.

That a land measuring 300 Kanals and 5 Marlas in Khasra No. 1939 situated in the revenue estate of village Mohra Noor Tehsil and District Islamabad was purchased by Mr. Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi son of Ikramullah Khan Niazi.


The land was transferred in my name through mutation Nos.7056, 7225, 7361, 7538 by my ex- husband Mr. Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi as a "Benami Transaction", After the Seperation / Divorce between me and Mr. Imran Ahmed Khan Niazni, I do not intend to keep the land with me.



On May 29, 2012, Mr. Imran Khan appeared in "Off the Record" a political talk show hosted by Mr. Kashif Abbasi. In reply to a question about this document, Mr. Khan repeated his position that the property was purchased by his wife because he did not have sufficient funds at the time of purchase. After the separation / divorce he sold his apartment in London and used the proceeds to pay his wife and transfer the land in his name. This is contrary to the facts documented above. The document clearly states that land was purchased by Mr. Khan and transferred to his wife's name as a Benami Transaction.

In order to bolster his position, Mr. Khan contested that he had nothing to gain from entering into a Benami Transaction. He defined a Benami Transaction as one where you purchase the land in someone else's name to save taxes. He asked what benefit would he get from such a transaction? Mr. Khan is either very naive or considers his audience to be clueless. Here is why a Benami transaction would make perfect sense for Mr. Khan.

Benami transactions are usually entered into by people who have no scarcity of resources but on paper are not worth enough to be able to afford the asset in question. They have accumulated wealth that has not been officially declared in their tax returns perhaps to save taxes or possibly because the means of income were illegal. The asset is paid for by the real owner from his undeclared wealth but the title is transferred to the Benami owner. Since the asset is not legally in the real owner's name, he does not need to declare the asset in his tax returns or justify the means for its purchase. This is the number one reason for use of Benami transactions Pakistan. It is therefore quite clear why Mr. Khan would enter into such a transaction. We already know of a source of income for Mr. Khan that he would face some problems declaring in Pakistan. The income from cricket betting that he admitted to have earned in his own book.

Mr. Khan also contradicted himself in this brief segment of the interview which he termed as an interrogation. He claimed that there was nothing to be gained from purchasing the land in his wife's name as he would have had to declare his wife and children's assets in his return. When asked as to why this property was not declared in his 2002 return as belonging to his wife, he retorted that the property was paid for by his wife and he did not need to declare it!

Mr. Khan has been heaping accusations on his political opponents without any shred of evidence for the last several months. He has positioned himself on a high pedestal from where he is hurling sleaze in all directions. However, he must remember that what is thrown straight up falls back on your face.

ImmiPossible

Imran Khan promises to end corruption in 90 days. Is it possible? There are some who believe he can deliver on his promise, others are skeptical of both his ability and sincerity. When questioned about how he would go about doing it, Imran, eager to be seen as confident, reduced this period to nine days. Nine days to end corruption in a country of 170 million is a goal only the super smart or the utterly daft would be willing to set.

Imran uses his political failures to his advantage. Having no history of holding a public office is translated into having no history of corruption or broken promises. However, if you examine Imran's promises only since the rebirth of Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI) in Lahore, many have already been broken. One such promise is discussed here.

Remember the time, not so long ago, when PTI was obsessed with declaration of assets? Non-declaration was termed the root of all evil and declaration of assets the panacea for rampant corruption. PTI adopted the strategy of targeting all politicians but reserved the most scathing attacks for the leaders of PML(N). Press conferences were held daily to urge the Sharifs to declare their assets. It was soon brought to the attention of Imran that the Sharifs had already declared their assets as part of their election nomination papers and continue to do so every year in the form of Wealth Statements, a mandatory part of Income Tax returns. Embarrassed with this oversight, Imran tagged the word "real" to the word "assets" and repeated his previous demands. It was declared that if you are rich you must be corrupt. Imran still failed to elicit a response from PML(N).  PTI then resorted to presenting self-compiled lists of the Sharif's assets printed on A4 sized sheets of paper, neatly stapled into a bunch. The thicker the bunch, more authentic the document was deemed to be. Waving these before the talk show cameras was considered to be irrefutable documentary proof of the oral accusation. Promises to investigate and unearth these assets were made. PTI also announced its intentions to take the case to the supreme court. This clip from Geo News program Lekin aired on Nov 5, 2011 shows PTI leader Mr. Mahmud-ur-Rasheed making these accusations and promising the above.

On Nov 13, 2011, the CEC of PTI issued a press release at the conclusion of its meeting in Islamabad. Some of the key points in this press release are as follows

• Scrutiny Committee/s will be nominated by the Chairman to address complaints of substantial corruption against any member of PTI.
• A committee will be formed to examine issues of assets obtained through corruption of all politicians including those of PTI.

On the same day, it was further announced that

PTI has established the Assets Scrutiny Committee that will be headed by Hamid Khan. It will first start by checking assets of PTI leadership. Chairman Imran Khan

On Dec 19 2011, another 10 member scrutiny  committee headed by Shah Mahmood Qureshi was announced. This time the purpose was to evaluate the new entrants into the party.

It has been 163 days since the announcement of the first scrutiny committee probing into the assets of politicians and we have not heard anything from it. Ironically, the only related news item that has adorned the newspaper columns since then has been about a senior member of the scrutiny committee in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Malik Naveed Khan coming under investigation of National Accountability Bureau for accumulation of assets beyond known sources of income.

So can Imran end corruption in 9 (or even 90) days? We don't have to elect him to find out. We already have our answer. It is ImmiPossible!

The 'I' Khan

25th March 1992 is etched into the memory of every cricket fan in Pakistan who was old enough to swing a bat on that historic day; Pakistan won the cricket world cup. Almost twenty years have passed since that fateful day, enough time for a new generation to edge out the previous. We now have players in our national side who were in diapers and even those who had not made their world debut in 1992. Surely, the new generation has heard stories from their parents detailing where they were and who they watched the final game with. They may have seen reruns of the game on a sports channel or have dug up clips on YouTube and watched Wasim Akram bowl the two greatest deliveries of his career. However, it is only the highlights that this generation has seen. They have missed out on the complete experience.

The captain of Pakistan's world cup winning team, Imran Khan currently attracts a large following from this generation. A generation that does not really know the person behind the face. The media has painted Imran as the messiah we have been waiting for. Many have taken their word for it. This article is meant to highlight a detail of the 1992 triumph that throws some light on the man that is Imran. Shortly after Rameez took the catch and sealed the win, Imran was called up to receive the world cup and say a few words. Here is his speech, verbatim.

I would just like to say, I want to give my commiseration to the English team but I want them to know that by winning this world cup, firstly, it means that one of my greatest obsessions in life which is to build a cancer hospital, I am sure that it will go a long way towards completion of this obsession. I would also like to say that I feel very proud that at the twilight of my career I have managed to win the world cup.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e51Qactcx7Q

These 87 words form probably the most egotistical victory speech by a captain in the history of team sports. The words 'I ' and 'my' appear a total of 9 times in this brief utterance. Although he did remember to mention the English team he did not consider it important to mention the Pakistani team. Words like 'Allah', 'we', 'Pakistani', 'teamwork', 'nation', 'my people' and 'thank you' were considered unnecessary or redundant. Wasim Akram, the Man of the Match and the leading wicket taker, Javed Miandad the 2nd highest scorer in the tournament were considered unworthy of acknowledgement. He was the team, he was the country and he was the reason the world set up the entire show. Imran and his backers try to clarify that it was an emotional moment and the speech had not been previously prepared. However, it is in these unrehearsed moments that the person inside truly shines through.

How is this relevant to what Imran promises us today? It is relevant because despite his claims of being a changed person we are dealing with the same man. His ego is on full display in his political life. He deems every politician in the country corrupt except himself and those who chose to follow him. His party revolves around him. Elections have not been held in the party to avoid the inconvenience of dealing with and giving weight to elected party officials. He single handedly formulates the party policies. Founding members of the party have deserted him realizing that they were irrelevant. They have been replaced by opportunists who see no problems in yelling out "yes sir" as long as it takes them closer to the leader and hence to power. Imran is not a person who can successfully lead a democratically elected government. Democracy demands listening to others, giving weight to their opinions and making your policies subordinate to the wisdom of the team. While there is no 'I' in team, there is a capital 'I' in Imran.

Dengue Brothers or Dengue Khan?

Imran Khan, propelled by a friendly media and unburdened by the weight of a political history, is flying high in public opinion. An important element in Imran's popularity is the absence of any previous record in a government position. While he and his party have no problems blowing up real and imagined weaknesses of their opponents to their political advantage, his critics find very little to target apart from a few indiscretions in his private and cricketing life. This lack of history is not necessarily a good thing. While it gives him a clean sheet and gives his followers a  lot of hope, it also casts a big question mark over his abilities to deliver on his promises. There are however many clues in his largely unfruitful political career spanning the last 15 years for those who are keeping their eyes and minds open.

Dengue fever effects up to 100 million worldwide each year. Half a million of these cases are life threatening. In 2010 dengue outbreaks were reported in Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Colombia, Singapore and several other countries. Punjab has been hit hard by dengue fever in 2011. The outbreak itself is not necessarily a reason to ridicule a government. It is how the outbreak is handled that determines the competence or lack thereof. Imran loves to use every mention of the outbreak as an opportunity to score some political points. His actions in alleviating the misery of the people are however non-existent. The primary responsibility of preventing and handling the outbreak lies with the Punjab government. However, Imran was ideally placed to lend a helping hand in this crises not to the government of Punjab but to the people of Punjab. The Shaukat Khanum Hospital is built on land donated by the Punjab government and runs on donations of Pakistanis. Instead of taunting the government from the sidelines Imran should have shown his leadership qualities and set up an intensive care unit at the hospital for patients in critical condition. The superior facilities and better doctors at this hospital may have been able to save a few lives. Sadly, Imran saw every dengue death as a +1 to his political score. He opted to show up on talk shows and have a chuckle about how the "Dengue Brothers" were being clean bowled by mosquitoes. Instead of taking the lead and offering free dengue tests to suspected patients Imran chose to defy the orders of the Punjab government and refused to carry out dengue tests for Rs.90.

In a recent survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan, 86% Pakistanis rated the performance of Punjab government as good or satisfactory in fighting dengue. Based on these numbers, the brothers can hold their heads up high while the Khan must hang his in shame.

Majority Favors Shahbaz Sharifs Performance in fighting Dengue virus The Ratings are Good 58% Satisfactory 28% and Bad 9%: GILANI POLL/GALLUP PAKISTAN

How Imran Can Sink Pakistan

Imran Khan is the only hope for this country. He will save us from total doom by sweeping the next elections. This is the information that is constantly being hammered into our heads by most media sources. This article is about an alternative post-election scenario which is much more likely to materialize but receives absolutely no mention in the media.

Imran believes or at least he wants us to believe that he can win 172 seats in the next general election to get an absolute majority in a parliament of 342. He will then become prime minister, fix everything in 90 days and Pakistanis will live happily ever after. Let us take a look at the past and present to assess how plausible his claim really is.

In the 1997 elections Imran Khan contested from seven constituencies and lost them all. This was only 5 years after "he won us the world cup."

In the 2002 elections held under Musharraf,  his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI ) fielded around 100 candidates but won a single seat in the national assembly. PTI polled only 0.8% of the national votes. It is also important to recall that his love affair with Musharraf was live and kicking at the time which may have boosted his vote count to this level.

In 2008, PTI boycotted the general elections. The party has however participated in the by-elections held in 2010 in Lahore, Mansehra and Rawalpindi and failed to win a seat. There is no reason to believe that his showing in the 2008 elections would have been any different had he participated. The boycott saved him another embarrassment.

So what can we expect in 2013 (or 2012?). Imran will tell us that a lot has changed in the last 10 years. People now understand that all the political parties in Pakistan are equally corrupt. That they are two faces of the same coin and a load  of other cliches that lump every body but him into the same bundle of trash. His supporters will quote online polls which show him to be the most popular political leader in Pakistan. Media will show him addressing large crowds and have us believe that his sweeping victory is all but etched in stone. Let us however logically analyze what really has changed and what really determines the outcome of elections in Pakistan.

Electoral success in Pakistan is not a simple matter especially in the rural areas which comprises more than 70% of the Pakistani population. A lot depends on the biradri system, the local chaudhrys, the jagirdars, the wadairas and the khans. Unless you have them on your side your success is highly unlikely. Nothing in the last 10 years has changed that could give us hope of anything different transpiring in the next elections. The literacy rate remains low and there have been no election reforms. These influential landlords are not a part of PTI.

A key component of electoral success in Pakistan has been the support of the establishment. Now this is a tricky one. Anybody with an insight into Pakistani politics will tell you that at the moment Imran Khan is enjoying great support from the establishment. However you need to ask yourself this question. Does the establishment really want to impose Imran Khan upon themselves? Does the establishment really want an end to the status quo? The absurdity of this idea becomes obvious if you look up the definitions of "establishment" and "status quo." So why is the establishment propping him up when they don't really want him to succeed? This is the crux of this article and will become abundantly clear if you read on.

The online polls, the surveys, comments posted on Facebook, feedback echoed by the media all reflect the opinion of the urban elite who will contribute very little to the contents of the ballot boxes. Not only because they are greatly outnumbered by the rural masses but also because these people will not bother to cast their vote when the day is actually upon them. They will sit in their homes watching TV because it is "unsafe" to go out or because it is too hot and the lines are too long. In summary, there is no reason to expect anything different this time around no matter what Imran, his supporters or the media will have us believe.

We will now analyze the most likely post election scenarios. For the reasons presented above the scenario where PTI wins 172 seats giving them an absolute majority in the assembly and making Imran Khan the prime minister is highly unlikely.

Now let us consider the alternate scenario which I consider to be orders of magnitude more likely. Beware this is a scary one. To begin with, we accept that Imran Khan has increased his vote bank 25 times over the last 10 years and now commands about 20% of the total popular vote up from 0.8% in 2002. But does this mean that he will win 20% of all seats in the national assembly? The answer is an emphatic no!  Imran's popularity is distributed all over the country. While you will find his supporters anywhere and everywhere, the critical mass required in any given constituency will remain elusive. Getting 10,000 or 15,000 votes in a constituency will not win him a seat. Therefore, when the numbers finally come in, Imran will have no more than 10% seats in the national assembly of 342. Why is this a scary scenario? Isn't it great that Imran, our savior, has finally made a big breakthrough in Pakistani Politics? Sadly, no. To understand why we must look at where the 20% votes that he bags are coming from.

The next elections will be about change. They will be about booting out PPP and giving someone else a chance. They will be PPP vs The Rest. Don't think that after an excruciating 5 years of darkness and despair nobody is going to vote for the PPP. There is a constant to their support base that is immune to any amount of evidence of corruption, nepotism, mismanagement and incompetence. Overwhelming evidence of this was recently seen in the results of the Azad Kashmir elections. The first decision facing the voter at the box will be to vote for or against the PPP. There is not much that can be said or done about people who still choose to vote for the PPP. Instead we focus our attention on those who decide to vote against. The choices before them are numerous. PML (N), PTI, ANP, MQM, JI and a dozen others. With each of these parties contesting on its own, there is going to be a division of votes among them. Since MQM and ANP are regional parties and current allies of PPP, we will ignore their effect for the time being. The anti-PPP vote will be split among the remaining parties Consider this example as a typical case. The PTI gets 15,000 votes in a particular constituency, PML(N) gets 20,000, JI gets 4000 but the PPP bags the seat having polled 21,000 votes! 65% votes polled against the PPP and yet the party wins the seat. This is the scary scenario that every one should consider going into the elections. This is not a fictional story, it is a very real possibility. We have already seen this effect in every election that the PPP has won in the history of Pakistan. Another 5 years for the PPP is something too painful to even imagine. If that happens.... If that happens ..... , I dare not complete the sentence. This is how Imran can sink Pakistan.

For completeness let us look at a third scenario, not very likely but important to illustrate another point. Here PTI does even better and manages to secure 40% of the popular vote. They manage to get 30% seats in the parliament with the PPP and PML (N) each getting 25%. Now what would be Imran's next move? Imran firmly believes that both these parties are "equally corrupt". How will he then form a government in this case? Inevitably he will have to choose one or the other. If there is any sanity left in him then it has to be the other.

If you have followed Imran's cricketing career, you know that he demands total control and nothing less is acceptable. He has a gigantic ego and if you need proof  then you must have missed his 1992 world cup victory speech. In his eyes. everyone is either corrupt or incompetent except those who choose to join him. Imran has been focusing all his energies on maligning the PML (N). If you listen to his tirades against PML (N) and Nawaz Sharif on any TV news channel it appears that this is the greatest problem facing our nation today. He would briefly mention the corruption of Zardari, the killings and extortion of MQM and the flip-flopping of PML (Q) and Mutahidda but the bulk of his venom will be reserved for the party that is not even part of the federal government. He is making a conscious effort to target one party and its leadership that would be his most likely coalition partner in a post election scenario. Imran's sees a monster when he looks at someone who threatens his leadership. Going back to his cricketing days, his relationship with Javed Miandad is a prime example of this phenomenon. Miandad was a team man who made a huge contribution to Imran's success as captain. Yet Imran always saw him as a threat and never wasted an opportunity to undercut his stature. This same phenomenon is at work here.

Imran Khan needs to calm down and seriously reconsider his approach. He is being propped up and encouraged by the establishment to fly solo. This does not mean that the establishment wants to see him in power. They just want to insure that a split mandate and an impotent government results from the elections that can be twisted and molded as required. The election out come will be fairly obvious to those who choose to analyze the situation logically and not emotionally. Those who choose to ignore facts on the ground and hang on to hope will be terribly disappointed. Not only are they in for a big surprise when the ballot boxes are opened, they will pay for their shortsightedness for another 5 years.

There is a need for an alliance or at least seat adjustment among anti-PPP parties that agree on a basic national agenda. Unless this happens, the next elections may bring us further despair and gloom.